A six-cluster behavioural segmentation of 82,608 players, built on a 90-day window of session, spend, and recency features. K-means with normalized RFM-extended inputs; silhouette 0.61 at k=6. The model identifies five revenue-active segments and one churned state, and prescribes a distinct treatment for each.
Players projected to 2D via PCA on the RFM-E feature matrix. Stars mark cluster centroids.
Silhouette peaks at k=6 (0.61). k=5 is close (0.57) but merges At-Risk into Casual; k=7 splits Casual without economic distinction.
Silhouette score across candidate cluster counts. The lift from k=5 to k=6 is the last meaningful gain before the curve inverts. k=6 also aligns with five distinct revenue-active segments and one churned state — economically interpretable.
ARPU, LTV, recency, and trend by cluster. Two segments hold sixty-three percent of revenue.
| Segment | Players | % of base | ARPU (wk) | LTV | Rev. share | Recency (d) | Sessions/wk | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Whales High · Active | 487 | 0.6% | $4.3k | $18.9k | 34.8% | 1.2 | 14.3 | +8.4% |
VIPs High · Active | 2,341 | 2.8% | $890 | $6.4k | 27.9% | 2.1 | 9.1 | +4.2% |
Mid-Value Mid · Active | 8,920 | 10.8% | $142 | $980 | 21.4% | 4.6 | 4.8 | +1.3% |
Casual Low · Active | 24,100 | 29.2% | $18 | $96 | 9.4% | 11.2 | 1.4 | -2.1% |
At Risk Risk · Active | 5,460 | 6.6% | $88 | $1.5k | 6.5% | 14.1 | 1.2 | -19.2% |
Churned Lost · Decayed | 41,300 | 50.0% | — | $360 | — | 96.4 | 0.0 | — |
90-day retention curves by segment. Whales hold near 90%; At-Risk collapses inside two weeks.
The model is only useful if it tells the CRM team what to do on Monday morning.
| Segment | Recommended action | Expected lift | Priority | Owner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Whales | Concierge outreach + bespoke tournament invites | +3.2% | Protect | CRM Lead |
VIPs | Reload-match cadence test (3 arms, 28d) | +5.8% | Grow | Promo Eng |
Mid-Value | Game-discovery push → high-hit-frequency titles | +11.2% | Grow | CRM + Math |
Casual | Onboarding sequence revamp (D1, D3, D7 touches) | +8.4% | Convert | Lifecycle |
At Risk | Trigger-based win-back: 48h after spend drop > 40% | +14.6% | Urgent | CRM Lead |
Churned | Quarterly seasonal flagship-launch reactivation | +2.4% | Maintain | Lifecycle |